Corvid-19: Why are we clinging to protocols based on false information?

[susanwayne]

JMHO: This is not political in nature, so please don't turn this thread into that. I'm interested in hearing what others think of this situation or where my thinking is wrong.

It occurred to me recently that decisions were made based on what the medical professionals 'thought' would occur before they had accurate information on this virus. For a while now, a week or more at least, we have come to realize that their early projections missed the mark by quite a bit. It's not that they meant to alarm us, but it was their best guess at a time when the information they were working with was wrong. Think initial information coming from China.

Why is no one re-evaluating our position now that we have more accurate stats? If we had this information back when this panic started would we have taken the route that we did? I tend to think not. We would have treated it as a 'bad' flu season (is there a good one?) and gone on about out business. Before flu shots were available, that's what we always did. People got sick, people got well and yes, some didn't survive. Tragic as that may be, we didn't ruin our lives and economy along the way.

Well it seems that the latest information would indicate a type of bad flu season, yet we are clinging to this extreme position as if we were dealing with the Bubonic Plague or Smallpox.

Why are we still locking ourselves in our homes? Why are businesses still being denied the opportunity to re-open their doors. All of the things we are doing to ourselves is based on faulty projections that we now know aren't valid.

Many of us on this site remember the chicken pox parties where you purposely exposed your child to the disease in the hopes of them being young and vital and if they got the disease their young bodies and systems would be strong enough to weather the storm. Chicken pox in an adult (not Shingles) is much more difficult to withstand. Perhaps that's what is happening today. The young and vital are handling the virus whereas the older set are more vulnerable to it's effects as their compromised systems can't fight it off as well.

We can't undo what we have done, but we certainly could re-evaluate our position now and change course couldn't we? Why aren't we?

[rkennell]

I know you you asked this not to be a political post, and I get that completely. However, based on all these questions and facts you raised, and they are all valid points, I think it's something that makes you wonder if there isn't something political going on. Why else would the state governments want to risk the collapse of their economy and control so much? If you'll notice, there is one political party that is dragging their feet and using extreme control measures, and one party that seems to want America to reopen for business using reasonable safety precautions. So feel free to delete my comment if this is going in the wrong direction as far as the intention of your post, but this is just my humble opinion as we wait this out. Our state is under the rule of a very left-leaning government and his control of this crisis is hurting our local economy severely. It was rough to make a living here before all this started and this is making it exponentially worse. We will likely be one of the last states to reopen for business. I think the accurate models are being looked at by our Vice President and his task force, and he stated that he believes that by June, America should be safe to reopen, if we continue with our common-sense precautions.

[susanwayne]

First of all when I said not to turn this into a political thread, what I really meant was all the trash talk, name calling, etc. Those discussions get us nowhere and turn a lot of us off as well. Your comments were respectful and articulate, giving pause for one to stop and think instead of just spitting out vitriol.

Your post had some good comments in it and I thank you for voicing them. I suppose there could be a political bent to all of this. I certainly think that some people are profiting off these tragic times but that is a price we pay for a free Republic. It's hard to believe that there are some with agendas and they don't care who gets hurt as long as it's not them!

I agree with you about some of the Governors have gotten a little power happy of late. Can't buy seed to plant food so that you don't have to rely on going to a supermarket? That doesn't make sense. Can't go out on a boat and drop anchor somewhere to fish for dinner? I can't even imagine the rationale for those.

I wasn't suggesting that now that we know the 'facts' to be different then the 'facts' we knew a few weeks ago, that we go whole hog and re-open the country overnight. I actually think a measured approach is probably best for our psyches if nothing else , but I think the degree of that measured approach could be loosened up a little. Maybe not in NYC or the 'hot spots' but every where else where it seem prudent to do so.

Thanks for your great comments. Good food for thought.

[Hellokitten]

The intent of the shutdown was to slow the spread of the virus while the medical community was able to get their infrastructure in place.
Now that has been done and we need to reopen the world. At this point more financial and psychological damage is being done. It is time to develop our herd immunity.
BTW I myself fall into the at risk elderly category. I'm not going to live the rest of my life stuck in my house.

[susanwayne]

Herd immunity is what I was referencing in my chicken pox anecdote.

There seems to be a connection between our no longer letting our kids play in the dirt and all the allergies they are coming up with today. Not only allergies by phobias. What are we going to be left with when life stabilizes?
Are the young people going to be afraid to leave their homes? Afraid of other people being potential virus carriers, etc. You get what I mean. Probably the judicious thing to do right now is to isolate the elderly (awful word but I'm a part of that group :} ) and let the rest of us slowly get back into the workforce.

BTW, don't you think that they should investigate some of these nursing homes that they say are responsible for so many deaths. Is it lack of care? lack of caring? lack of services? Is it that the patients are all compromised health wise in some other way? Why? We entrust our loved ones to an institution that seems to be letting us down.

I get that they wanted to buy time with this lock down but I think that they could re-think the speed at which we can go back to the new normal.

[Hellokitten]

I suspect people in nursing homes are really just highly vulnerable to this virus because of their health issues.It's a terrible situation.

My grandparents and parents were extremely health conscious regarding cleanliness. They lived in a time without modern medical devices and choice of antibiotics we have today. Let's face it, our standards have slipped in recent times. It's back to basics. Like stay home if you're sick! Don't just take a Dayquil and go to work and spread it around.

[lovestostitch]

I think many governors still have a tough decision between opening their economy and controlling infection rates. I'm in IL (same state as rkennell) and our infection rates are still on an upward trend. The hospitals have been able to manage the number of patients they've received but a dramatic increase in cases might be a problem. I know that acquiring PPE has been a problem in IL. I am also suspicious that IL might be using the pandemic as an excuse for a federal bailout to solve its financial problems. The governor could be motivated to let the economy get worse as more reason for federal assistance.

I believe we should reopen our economy but I do think we are going to see a big uptick in cases when that happens. I was so disappointed when I read a bunch of comments in a Facebook knitting group. There were a lot of posters saying they refused to wear a mask - because it was their right to not wear one. We also saw the protesters standing close to each other with no masks. With that kind of selfishness and irresponsible behavior, I expect to see a lot more cases. IL is making mask wearing mandatory May 1st but I read an article this morning discussing how difficult this will be. The police don't want to be involved and store owners don't want their employees to have physical confrontations with those who refuse to wear a mask.

I would have liked to believe a national emergency like this would have brought out the best in everyone and made us work together but sadly, I haven't seen that.

[susanwayne]

Hmmm...maybe you are on to something within your state. I think NY may be thinking of the same scenario to get them out of their previous financial difficulties.

But here's some good people are doing that should cheer you up.

A lot of good people have risen to the occasion becoming even better than they were before. I had a neighbor reach out through Ring Doorbell offering to anyone in our little community that needed help that he was available between 3-5 everyday. He's a perfect stranger and yet he was concerned for those less fortunate who might be having a harder time in this lock down.

My daughter, among other things, a pretty good photographer, has offered herself in her community to photograph families on their front steps as a memory of this time in their lives. She is not charging for this but asks if they want to make a donation, she is turning over 100% to a local charity. Of the five families she did yesterday, they each made sizable donations. They were just so thrilled to be doing this and doing it for a good reason.

On a personal note, I haven't been out of this house (except on my own deck) for over a month. My family have me on lock down supplying all of my needs from the outside world. I just hope I remember how to drive when this is all over!

[lovestostitch]

Yesterday was my first trip out of our neighborhood in at least two months. We do take daily walks so I have been out of the house. Yesterday, we went to a nursery to do a no contact pickup. I pre-ordered and paid ahead of time. It is a really nice garden center and normally it is a pleasure to walk around and browse. They did an amazing job of making the nursery a drive through. They had masked employees in each section ready to put plants in your car. They also have a great online catalog. Since I knew what I wanted, I pre-ordered and paid to make it truly no contact. Hubby drove his pickup and they just put the stuff in back.

It was nice of your daughter to offer her photographic services. I can imagine how much the families must have enjoyed that.

[Hellokitten]

We're supposed to wear masks in California. We have been for awhile now. The great majority of people are complying. Our death rate is really low, comparitively.

[FreedomLover]

I'm in South Carolina and we're opening up. Hobby Lobby opened its doors today and my husband and I went shopping. Everyone was following protocols and social distancing was working better than it has in the grocery stores. Our local hospital has furloughed many of its people because not allowing for scheduled procedures has emptied the place. Our numbers were never high and they've been decreasing for more than two weeks. We do have the added benefit of warmer temperatures right now.

People here are more worried about the economic damage than the virus, especially as antibody testing is showing that many more people have had the disease than were confirmed, bringing the fatality rate much lower. It doesn't help either that the numbers are based on assumptions, Pennsylvania lowered their count by 201 Thursday. We don't eat out frequently but when the restaurants open we'll be there too. This was absolutely necessary in some places, but it wasn't everywhere and it's time for the one size fits all approach to end.

ETA: I'm 53, my husband is 54 and we have no underlying health concerns.

[susanwayne]

Had to laugh out loud though. The first place you went to was Hobby Lobby!

Did you use up all your stash in this last month? HAHAHAHA

Thanks for your input on a touchy subject. Your approach seems moderate and appropriate. When you are in the middle of a storm (like the Washington bubble) you think the entire world is in that storm whereas in reality that storm may be spotty, hitting NYC hard but SC not so much. There can't be the same band-aid for every area.

I think that people are very worried abut their families and their livelihoods and no one is listening to them. Yes this virus may be front page news right now and I'm not saying that it shouldn't be, It just may be too myopic. I would hate to see a rash of suicides a month from now be our front page news. Didn't that happen during the Great Depression? I think we have to start thinking about that.

[FreedomLover]

It was hubby's idea! It's truly my favorite chain store, I love their home décor and I love to craft. To me it's Kirkland's, Joann's, Michael's and Party City all rolled into one and there is always a sale. Their Easter stuff is now 80% off so I picked up two things (the box hasn't gone back up to the attic yet), the yarn is 30% off and sewing notions are 50% off. I had fun.

And yes, suicides were much higher during the depression. Other things to worry about are alcohol/drug abuse and people who live in difficult circumstances having to be there 24/7. Continuing with this will cause loss of life and loss of livelihoods. Everyone staying home does not mean everyone is safe.

[lovestostitch]

Wow - a husband who suggests going to Hobby Lobby! The only time my husband has been in a craft store was after I had foot surgery and was so bored with being housebound. I had to use a wheelchair or crutches. One day he offered to take me somewhere to give me some entertainment. He wheeled me around Michael's. I didn't even buy anything! It was entertaining to just get out and look. Hobby Lobby has free shipping at $50 right now and I have $35 worth of stuff I want. Everything else I want is out of stock. How can they be so out of stock when they have been closed?

[FreedomLover]

He's a good guy, I imagine a lot of people have been ordering from Hobby Lobby online. I still have a fair amount of yarn in the stash, but not to work on the Traveling Afghans project. I started that using leftovers and then decided I wanted to go in another direction. I'll probably redo the first two squares.

[rkennell]

Wow--lots of great discussion going on here! And respectful conversation, to boot. I think yes, the governor of IL is using this to get federal aid, which is sad, because he pretty much bankrupted the state despite the fact that he is finding every little way he can to raise taxes, and I suspect some other governors are also looking for aid as well, using this as an excuse. Truthfully, I think the huge majority of the cases in IL are in Chicago, and I think Cook Co. in particular, and the rest of the state has had very little in comparison. We live in central IL and the rate of infection is very low here. There were only 11 cases in our county and all but one of them recovered. The person who did not was an elderly person who had underlying health conditions and had contact with someone who had the virus. So we have no new cases, yet, we are not allowed to open our businesses. It does seem a bit wonky that it's being played out this way. I think the majority of people here would wear masks if they were required to, if that meant the businesses could be open. Of course, if they did open this area, I'm sure there would be people coming down from Chicago, to escape being "locked down" and that could pose a problem there as well.

I had to chuckle, too, at the Hobby Lobby shopping going on! That stash was probably getting dangerously low!!

[qfknit]

Just want to quickly share three things:

1) Links to IHME data:

Unfortunately pages are not updated on a regular basis, and some figures presented may be out-of-date.

- Home page - http://www.healthdata.org/
- COVID-19, main page - https://covid19.healthdata.org
- COVID-19, select any country (example USA selected) - https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
- COVID-19, USA, select any state (example Illinois selected) - https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/illinois

2) graphic:

Social distancing will not stop the spread of the disease, only slow it down

3) graphic: CDC rates of influenza-related hospitalizations

The CDC reports a far lower rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations this year (2019-2020) than 2017-2018... and yet the economy was *not* shutdown in 2017-2018 to fight the illness.
(Link to source of this graphic: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S5 )

NOTE:
The CDC tracks COVID-19 along with "Influenza-like illness (ILI)", as seen in the video of Press Conference of April 16, 2020 (Plan for Reopening America)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_2mSMGVD0s

Maps shown in video - "Influenza-like illness (ILI) Activity Level Indicator, Determined by Data Reported to ILINet"

Maps are sourced from: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/, and have a one-week lag in reporting.

[Cablegrrl]

Hopefully all states will get the testing kits they need, and we will see America safely open for business again soon. 🥂

And now for a moment of silliness: the#QuarantinePillowChallenge on Instagram. 😁

[susanwayne]

FreedomLover Would you care to clone that husband of yours? Good man you have there.

[FreedomLover]

He's one of the good guys.

[Hellokitten]

I came across this article this morning. It made me laugh even though the subject is deadly serious. Did you ever wonder where they are getting all their policies and so!utions for this health crisis? Read this.

History is doomed to repeat.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coron...htmlstory.html

[Hellokitten]

So true! It is scary to be so dependent on one country for our supplies. Just because they can make it cheaper. But behold the unseen costs. Hopefully we will learn to diversify now.
But I bet everything learned will be forgotten in a few more generations. Repeat.

[FreedomLover]

The elastic, if one can call it that, does degrade. I just ripped back seams, removed the stretchy plastic and sewed actual elastic into a lot of masks for a local health care organization. The stuff that I took out broke if you pulled on it at all.

China quarantined people in Wuhan from traveling elsewhere in China but allowed them to travel internationally. They hoarded PPE, blamed the virus on US military personnel, lied to the world and threatened to cut off all medicine to any country that wanted an investigation. The leader of the WHO is their paid puppet. Will world leaders learn from this? I doubt it.

[EllenDeKnitter]

Hellokitten and lovestostitch - In addition to the elastic degrading, the masks themselves become less effective over time. A mask has 3 layers. The middle layer is made from non-woven fabric and is electrostatically charged. It is that charge that makes them as effective as they need to be.

You can go to the CDC website to see a list of masks and which ones can be used beyond their expiration date (and how much beyond that date).

[Hellokitten]

One reason for the extreme reaction to this virus was because they knew so little about it and it was spreading so quickly. Obviously they were very worried about the unknown implications.
I think they understand it much better now and can see it resolving to some extent. They have ways to treat the majority of the people, but of course there are always those unfortunate people who will succumb regardless. The flu would also get them too if they were exposed.

[susanwayne]

Hellokitten That was my thinking exactly. I believe they acted in good faith upon the information coming from China about the virulence of this virus. However, along they way they began to see that what they originally thought was not panning out. As more information filtered into their models, the evidence of their miscalculations became clearer.

Why then were they still maintaining their protocol based on the false information? Why weren't they adjusting it to where it was really needed. I believe that I heard the statistic that nursing homes were a primary source of the deaths nationwide. Why aren't we 'social distancing' those patients? Giving them additional attention and care?

Rather than focus on arresting a father playing ball with his child in an empty park because he wasn't living up to the rules they had put in place, shouldn't we be focusing on those loved ones who we now realize are the most vulnerable?

I have a friend who couldn't be with her mother for the final days of her life (not covid induced), having to leave her to pass alone in a nursing home among strangers. She will forever feel the guilt of not having been there for her mother after a lifetime of her mother having been there for her. That's just a little piece of the unintended consequences of our actions.

[FreedomLover]

I clicked Like because I agree with you, not because of what happened to your friend. I can't imagine how she feels.

[lovestostitch]

I know some nursing homes in our area have been hit hard. They have instituted social distancing. In addition to no visitors, they are having all residents eat in their rooms and there are no social activities. What a lonely existence.

[qfknit]

I am strongly against the current bans against families visiting elderly relatives in nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, retirement homes, and other senior residences. This isolation is a form of abuse. The absence of family advocates also allows unchecked neglect and abuse of the elderly by staffers.

The CNAs and other staff can also bring COVID-19 to the senior citizens; there is nothing to suggest that families would be more likely to infect their loved ones.

[Hellokitten]

After 6 weeks of keeping my husband locked up at home, I let him go play golf today. Enough. We have had 16 cases in our county, none left in the hospital, and zero new cases in 12 days.

[EllenDeKnitter]

In regard to PPE, you might find this interesting...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ibt...953130%3famp=1

[lovestostitch]

Hellokitten - I worry about a shortage of a lot of medications If our country acts aggressively towards China. We are in a very vulnerable position.

[Hellokitten]

Definitely could be a problem. I doubt the general public realized the majority of our medications came (comes)from China.

[qfknit]

I am more concerned with a shortage of medications if our country continues to be overly dependent and trusting toward China, or any country for that matter. I believe it is well past time to return many manufacturing jobs to the United States of America. Not to do so simply deprives our citizens of jobs, weakens our economy, and provides those countries with leverage, which can be used against us.